Florida Metro Forecast

Dr. Sean Snaith is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. Today he released his latest Florida metro forecast offering a slightly improving economic outlook for Florida through at least 2014.

Snaith expects unemployment to remain stubbornly high — not falling below 10 percent until next year — He goes on to call the housing boom of the mid-2000s a “once-in-a-lifetime event that we will probably not see again”

Like the rest of us, Snaith calls the labor market the key for Florida’s overall economic health, saying as unemployment numbers fall, so will the number of foreclosures. And more employed Floridians means more potential buyers for homes on the currently saturated market.

Other highlights of the Snaith’s report include:

• Florida’s population growth will continue its recovery in 2011. By 2014, the growth rate should hit 1.9 percent as the damage from the Great Recession is repaired and the baby boomer retiree flow continues.
• Real gross state product will expand 2.1 percent in 2011, and that growth rate will accelerate to 2.8 percent in 2012, 3.3 percent in 2013 and 4.1 percent in 2014.
• From 2011 to 2014, real personal income growth will average 3 percent and will peak at 4.8 percent in 2014.
• Retail sales in 2011 should finish stronger this year than last year. Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 5.2 percent from 2012 to 2014.

Full report available for free download here http://bit.ly/r3j7zX